1. India’s Winter Outlook 2025-26: Mixed Signals Amid La Niña Debate

New Delhi | November 5, 2025 — The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a provisional forecast for the coming winter season, stating that while some regions of northern India may face colder-than-usual days and early fog, overall winter conditions are likely to remain near normal. This assessment comes despite widespread speculation that a developing La Niña event would bring a harsher winter. India Today+2Business Standard+2

Forecast Highlights & Regional Variations

According to IMD’s latest outlook, northwest India, the Himalayas’ foothills and the northeastern states may experience early cold waves and occasional snowfall, while plains will likely see daytime temperatures dipping and nights remaining relatively warmer. The Federal+1 However, forecasters caution that the anticipated La Niña is “weak” and may not exert its full effect, leading to a winter that stays within normal bounds. The Indian Express+1

Implications for Agriculture, Health & Infrastructure

The mixed forecast carries significant implications:

• Farmers in northern states must prepare for possible early cold snaps which could affect rabi-crop sowing and water demand.
• Municipal authorities in Delhi-NCR and other major cities are poised to monitor air-quality and fog conditions ahead of the winter pollution season.
• Transport services, especially in hill belts and high-altitude routes, remain on alert for early snowfall or icy roads.

Meteorologist Dr. Pankaj Kumar noted: “While we are not expecting record-breaking cold, an early onset of winter conditions is likely in some regions — preparedness remains key.”

Why the Conflicting Narratives?

The contrast between expectations of a severe winter and the IMD’s moderate outlook arises from the complex interaction of climate drivers:

• La Niña typically promotes increased rainfall and cooler winters in northern India. The Indian Express+1
• On the other hand, long-term warming trends may dampen the severity of cold events.
• Local weather patterns, including western disturbances and soil moisture levels, add further variability.

What to Watch Going Forward

• Weekly IMD bulletins for entries of cold-wave alerts, especially in November-December.
• Progress on the rabi-crop sowing schedule and any signs of delay due to cold stress.
• Air-quality indices in NCR regions during early winter nights: a trend often worsened by fog and low wind.
• Transport advisories for mountain regions as early snowfall or frost may disrupt key routes.

Bottom Line

India’s winter of 2025-26 appears poised for a moderate transition rather than extreme conditions — a relief for many after years of erratic weather. But even a “normal” winter carries its own risks: early cold waves, air-quality deterioration and agriculture stress. The key takeaway: ready, not alarmed.